Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 141,645
2 Rhode Island 140,583
3 South Dakota 139,007
4 Utah 124,319
5 Tennessee 122,310
6 Arizona 118,878
7 Iowa 116,043
8 Nebraska 113,978
9 Wisconsin 113,887
10 Oklahoma 113,474
11 South Carolina 112,886
12 New Jersey 112,809
13 Arkansas 111,492
14 Indiana 108,067
15 Delaware 108,038
16 Alabama 107,845
17 Kansas 106,997
18 Illinois 106,351
19 New York 105,775
20 Idaho 105,371
21 Mississippi 105,037
22 Florida 104,737
23 Minnesota 103,096
24 Nevada 102,824
25 Montana 102,388
26 Georgia 101,755
27 Wyoming 100,848
28 Kentucky 100,603
29 Massachusetts 100,484
30 Texas 100,158
31 Louisiana 99,022
32 Missouri 98,340
33 Connecticut 95,633
34 Michigan 94,927
35 California 94,877
36 New Mexico 94,703
37 North Carolina 93,669
38 Alaska 92,904
39 Ohio 92,161
40 Pennsylvania 91,095
41 Colorado 90,042
42 West Virginia 86,237
43 Virginia 77,639
44 Maryland 74,466
45 New Hampshire 70,392
46 District of Columbia 67,993
47 Washington 53,906
48 Puerto Rico 52,328
49 Maine 46,502
50 Oregon 44,481
51 Vermont 37,165
52 Hawaii 23,400

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Michigan 290
2 Rhode Island 233
3 Minnesota 225
4 Maine 221
5 Delaware 199
6 Colorado 197
7 West Virginia 195
8 Pennsylvania 188
9 North Carolina 172
10 Washington 172
11 Alaska 166
12 Florida 164
13 Illinois 162
14 Connecticut 161
15 Puerto Rico 161
16 Oregon 157
17 Nevada 138
18 New Hampshire 135
19 New Mexico 134
20 Indiana 130
21 Wyoming 129
22 New York 128
23 Louisiana 125
24 New Jersey 119
25 North Dakota 119
26 South Dakota 118
27 Montana 115
28 Tennessee 115
29 Massachusetts 111
30 Idaho 107
31 Kentucky 107
32 South Carolina 107
33 Georgia 104
34 Wisconsin 96
35 Iowa 94
36 Ohio 93
37 Texas 93
38 Maryland 92
39 Missouri 92
40 District of Columbia 87
41 Vermont 84
42 Virginia 83
43 Mississippi 79
44 Utah 79
45 Arizona 78
46 Nebraska 77
47 Oklahoma 59
48 Hawaii 58
49 Kansas 57
50 Arkansas 54
51 California 44
52 Alabama 32

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,888
2 New York 2,670
3 Massachusetts 2,559
4 Rhode Island 2,530
5 Mississippi 2,426
6 Arizona 2,384
7 Connecticut 2,276
8 Louisiana 2,238
9 South Dakota 2,230
10 Alabama 2,225
11 Pennsylvania 2,060
12 North Dakota 2,001
13 Indiana 1,984
14 New Mexico 1,948
15 Illinois 1,926
16 Arkansas 1,906
17 Michigan 1,906
18 Iowa 1,889
19 South Carolina 1,849
20 Georgia 1,847
21 Nevada 1,779
22 Tennessee 1,774
23 Texas 1,743
24 Kansas 1,726
25 Oklahoma 1,715
26 Delaware 1,669
27 Ohio 1,654
28 Florida 1,648
29 California 1,569
30 District of Columbia 1,567
31 Missouri 1,516
32 West Virginia 1,503
33 Kentucky 1,488
34 Montana 1,475
35 Maryland 1,456
36 Wisconsin 1,302
37 Minnesota 1,288
38 Virginia 1,267
39 Nebraska 1,226
40 Wyoming 1,226
41 North Carolina 1,213
42 Idaho 1,149
43 Colorado 1,121
44 New Hampshire 961
45 Washington 732
46 Puerto Rico 727
47 Utah 691
48 Oregon 597
49 Maine 587
50 Alaska 452
51 Vermont 397
52 Hawaii 339

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Michigan 5
2 Missouri 3
3 Rhode Island 3
4 Florida 2
5 Illinois 2
6 Maryland 2
7 Mississippi 2
8 New Jersey 2
9 New Mexico 2
10 New York 2
11 South Dakota 2
12 West Virginia 2
13 Arkansas 1
14 California 1
15 Colorado 1
16 Connecticut 1
17 Idaho 1
18 Indiana 1
19 Kentucky 1
20 Louisiana 1
21 Massachusetts 1
22 Minnesota 1
23 Nebraska 1
24 Nevada 1
25 North Carolina 1
26 Ohio 1
27 Pennsylvania 1
28 Puerto Rico 1
29 South Carolina 1
30 Texas 1
31 Utah 1
32 Virginia 1
33 Washington 1
34 Wyoming 1
35 Alabama 0
36 Alaska 0
37 Arizona 0
38 Delaware 0
39 District of Columbia 0
40 Georgia 0
41 Hawaii 0
42 Iowa 0
43 Kansas 0
44 Maine 0
45 Montana 0
46 New Hampshire 0
47 North Dakota 0
48 Oklahoma 0
49 Oregon 0
50 Tennessee 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wisconsin 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 361,694 1 99
Crowley Colorado 360,007 2 99
Bent Colorado 273,624 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 249,661 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 245,700 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 141,770 186 94
Richland South Carolina 111,117 984 68
York South Carolina 109,837 1040 66
Orange California 85,161 2191 30
Pierce Washington 55,388 2867 8

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,035 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 4 99
Hancock Georgia 7,686 5 99
Orange California 1,568 1819 42
Davidson Tennessee 1,343 2085 33
York South Carolina 1,342 2086 33
Richland South Carolina 1,313 2114 32
Pierce Washington 724 2740 12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons